COSMOS Rankings

The College Football Playoff field for 2025-26 is in, and in our first full public run of the COSMOS formula, MOV- hit 10 of the 12 playoff teams, including 10 of the top 11:

Rk	Team	Conf	W	L	Opp W%	MOV-
1	Indiana	B1G	13	0	.528	1.667
2	Georgia	SEC	12	1	.561	1.474
3	Oregon	B1G	11	1	.542	1.410
4	Ohio State	B1G	12	1	.564	1.403
5	Texas Tech	Big 12	12	1	.504	1.374
6	James Madison	SBC	12	1	.483	1.366
7	Ole Miss	SEC	11	1	.481	1.295
8	Notre Dame	Ind	10	2	.529	1.265
9	Oklahoma	SEC	10	2	.615	1.223
10	Tulane	American	11	2	.520	1.189
11	Texas A&M	SEC	11	1	.465	1.169
12	BYU	Big 12	11	2	.571	1.162
13	North Texas	American	11	2	.527	1.081
14	Utah	Big 12	10	2	.488	1.072
15	Miami	ACC	10	2	.521	1.049
16	Vanderbilt	SEC	10	2	.488	1.041
17	Alabama	SEC	10	3	.573	.909
18	Kennesaw State	CUSA	10	3	.499	.908
19	Navy	American	9	2	.491	.896
20	Texas	SEC	9	3	.529	.896

In line with the pundits, Notre Dame was the highest-ranked team left out.

Miami and Alabama, who were the last two at-large teams selected, finished 15th and 17th, respectively. Miami was the highest ACC team but did not participate in the ACC Championship Game.

According to MOV-, both Notre Dame and BYU should have been selected ahead of them.

This was a surprisingly strong performance for MOV-, given all of the chaos of the final week.

The MOV+ standings shook out like this:

Rk	Team	Conf	W	L	OppW%	Avg Opp MOV+	MOV-	MOV+
1	Indiana	B1G	13	0	.528	.129	1.667	1.159
2	Texas Tech	Big 12	12	1	.504	.035	1.374	1.030
3	Ohio State	B1G	12	1	.564	.141	1.403	1.023
4	James Madison	SBC	12	1	.483	-.057	1.366	.937
5	Oregon	B1G	11	1	.542	.055	1.410	.916
6	Notre Dame	Ind	10	2	.529	.045	1.265	.907
7	Georgia	SEC	12	1	.561	.123	1.474	.883
8	Utah	Big 12	10	2	.488	.001	1.072	.817
9	Ole Miss	SEC	11	1	.481	.002	1.295	.814
10	North Texas	American	11	2	.527	.005	1.081	.769
11	Miami	ACC	10	2	.521	.066	1.049	.755
12	Texas A&M	SEC	11	1	.465	.052	1.169	.748
13	BYU	Big 12	11	2	.571	.250	1.162	.731
14	Oklahoma	SEC	10	2	.615	.227	1.223	.724
15	Vanderbilt	SEC	10	2	.488	.004	1.041	.714
16	Tulane	American	11	2	.520	.034	1.189	.696
17	South Florida	American	9	3	.551	.040	.854	.644
18	USC	B1G	9	3	.556	.109	.852	.611
19	Texas	SEC	9	3	.529	.068	.896	.606
20	Alabama	SEC	10	3	.573	.217	.909	.605
21	Michigan	B1G	9	3	.563	.119	.863	.559
22	Arizona	Big 12	9	3	.515	.020	.843	.548
23	Old Dominion	SBC	9	3	.505	-.073	.802	.544
24	Virginia	ACC	10	3	.511	-.028	.806	.512
25	Kennesaw State	CUSA	10	3	.499	-.013	.908	.510

According to MOV+, Notre Dame and Utah got hosed. North Texas’ abnormally high ranking is a question mark, but they are where they are largely because they destroyed a large number of teams they played.

However, again, the selection of Alabama appears to be the most egregious decision the committee made. Five non-playoff teams in MOV- and eight in MOV+ landed ahead of them, including Texas in MOV+ and Vanderbilt in both rankings.

I think the reason we didn’t hit was politics. The ACC was so bad that the CFP had to throw them a bone with Miami getting in over Notre Dame. When it comes to Alabama, all the reasons they gave for putting them in — you shouldn’t penalize conference championship game losers, for example — also apply to BYU. But BYU lost only two games to the same team (Texas Tech), and did not suffer a bad loss like Bama did to Florida State (#80 MOV+, #101 MOV-)

Anyway, I’m pretty happy with how the formula performed. Now I’m going to find out how well it predicts the playoff games.

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